
Forecasting
is one of the main expectations of research. After all, prescience in the
selection of particular properties should be a cornerstone of any real estate
investment strategy.
Good projections need a number of things to be in place: empirical data; a
long time series; and a clear understanding of the mechanisms which drive
the market. In all these areas the property industry is in a much better position
than it has ever been.
The
growth of industry standards through organisations like IPD have contributed
massively to our understanding in this area and allowed us the luxury of
something to test theory against.
However, things are not that rosy, particularly by comparison with other industries.
Data is not empirical enough, we dont have long enough time series to undertake
realistic analysis and, in any event, the open market that we are attempting
to
predict is neither open nor, technically, a market.
Property projections need a health warning. In those areas where data is limited,
either by confidentiality or geography, that warning shoud be writ large.
This, of course, makes the second part of a forecast - the judgement that
interprets projections - much more important. This judgement can only be
born of experience of applying this whole process and learning its effectiveness
through feedback.